A quick word first
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A strange demand
Daniel Yin, a former student of mine told me how he negotiated the release of his kidnapped brother.1 For almost almost a full month, Daniel had to make a series of critical decisions, uncertain whether his actions would return Steven to his family or trigger his death. I’ll lay out some hard choices he had to make. At each step, I’ll encourage you to take a moment to think about what you would have advised him, had you been his coach.
Kidnapping for money has become common in Daniel’s country. The professionals who do are skillful. After snatching a victim, they wait several days before contacting his or her family, intensifying their fear.
Daniel used the time to his own advantage, however, getting a crash course in hostage negotiation from the police (not all of whom he trusted). He was told that in their country, it’s not like the movies. Kidnappers there don’t state demands. Instead, they insist that the family put numbers on the table. The Yins were well-off financially, but not super-rich. Daniel figured he could quickly come up with almost $1,000,000. If there was time, he could raise more.
Here's a two-part question. Give it some quick thought.
Why would these kidnappers insist on extracting an offer, rather making their own demand?
If Daniel must comply, how much should he offer for the release of his much-loved brother?
a. $50,000
b. $150,000
c. $250,000
d. $500,000
Here's a two-part question. Give it some quick thought.
Why would these kidnappers insist on extracting an offer, rather making their own demand?
If Daniel must comply, how much should he offer for the release of his much-loved brother?
a. $50,000
b. $150,000
c. $250,000
d. $500,000
First, it makes real the fact that the family must pay if they want to see Steven again. Second, it protects the kidnappers from underestimating the wealth of the victim’s family. Third, and most important, it demonstrates that the kidnappers are running the show.
Daniel understood that it was too soon to challenge the kidnappers’ authority. So, when he got their call two days after Steven had been captured, Daniel already had his answer: “We can pay you $50,000 right now.”
“That’s ridiculous,” the kidnapper said. “You’ll have to do much better that.” The phone line went dead.
Daniel knew he was taking a chance by making a low offer, but thought the risk was low. He realized that whatever number he proposed would be flatly rejected. “At that point,” he says, “my paramount goal was to keep the conversation going.”
The long game
The second phone call came the next evening. “You have a prosperous business, Mr. Yin,” the kidnapper said. “Don’t insult me with any more low offers. You can easily pay many times what you said.”
“Sir,” replied Daniel. “You know what is happening in the economy. Things are bad, our credit line is gone. It’s not our fault. It’s happening to everyone.”
“Well, sell your big Mercedes, then,” said the kidnapper. Daniel thought he heard a trace of exasperation. “It’s not mine to sell,” Daniel answered. “The bank is about to repossess it.”
“Make me another offer,” the caller said over the crackle of a car phone.
“I can find sixty thousand dollars,” said Daniel. “Maybe sixty-five.”
“That’s not enough,” said the kidnapper, hanging up.
Once Daniel had committed to his strategy, he didn’t falter. He focused on influencing the kidnapper’s perceptions. “I wanted to keep him interested but at the same time really anchor his expectations,” Daniel said. “I was very careful to be consistent, increasing my offers only a little at a time.”2
Another question.
For Daniel, this negotiation was not about money or time, for that matter. It was about maximizing the likelihood of getting Steven back safely. At this point should Daniel:
a. Try to convince the kidnapper to make a counter-offer?
b. Increase his offer significantly enough to tempt the kidnapper, perhaps upping it to $100,000?
c. Continue to make modest increases on his initial offer?
Daniel stuck with his strategy of raising his bid in small increments and the negotiations dragged on for weeks. In each of the daily calls, Daniel would pose a personal question that only his brother could answer. Next time, the kidnapper would need to have the appropriate answer to prove that Steven was still alive.
Closing the deal
It was an arduous process. Something had to be done to bring it to a close. By day twenty-seven, Daniel had pushed the offer to $78,000. Still the kidnapper insisted on more.
“Call me back tomorrow,” said Daniel. “I may have another option.” This time he was the one to hang up.
When the kidnapper called the next evening, Daniel claimed that he had contacted a loan shark, an underworld figure who could provide another $20,000. “That gets us into the nineties,” the kidnapper said. “That’s better, but it’s still not enough.”
“You don’t understand,” said Daniel. “I haven’t borrowed the money from him yet. The moment that I do, we owe interest of one percent per day.”
“That’s your problem,” said the kidnapper.
“Actually, it’s a problem for both of us,” Daniel said. “If I’ve got to pay interest, it will come out of any money I borrow. So, if we keep negotiating, the loan shark is going to cut into the amount that you get. There’s no way around it.”
“Let me think about it,” said the caller.
“Of course,” said Daniel, “but the commitment he gave me is good only until noon tomorrow. I either have to take the money then, or he’ll lend it to other people.”
The kidnapper hung up but called back in five minutes with a counteroffer.
“Make the amount an even one hundred thousand, and we have a deal,” he said.
“I can do that,” said Daniel after a deliberate pause.
For twenty-eight days Daniel wasn’t sure he’d ever see his brother again. The morning of the twenty-ninth day, Steven—bound, gagged, and blind-folded—was pushed out of a van on side-street in a major city.
Daniel did three things remarkably well:
First, he somehow maintained his poise in a life-and-death situation.
Second, he recognized that the kidnapper had a poor BATNA. A stalemate would be a bad outcome for him, as well, having invested so much time (and risk) in holding Steven.
Third, most important, he wove together his deft tactics and his long-term strategy to maximize the odds of success.3
Housekeeping
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I’ve disguised names, been silent about the location, and have used U.S. dollars for the currency. Other than that, everything that follows is exactly what took place.
See my recent article, “Giving Ground (Grudgingly).”
For more on this case, see Ch. 9, Critical Moments, in my The Art of Negotiation: How to Improvise Agreement in a Chaotic World.
Hi Michael, I really enjoyed this story. Thanks for sharing it, and for telling it compellingly! During the past three weeks, Canada has had long-haul truck drivers parked on major city streets (our national capitol, for example). I assumed Canada would have some pretty sophisticated negotiators on site, and perhaps they were there but out of the media's sight. But the impending police resolution suggests negotiations with organizers either failed or didn't take place at all. If you have been following the story, what are your thoughts?